Capital Markets · Agent 06 · on IBM watsonx Orchestrate

Know the loss before it finds you.

In plain English: Quantum Hedge measures what a book can lose — Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, the regime you're trading into — on a calibrated router that runs each problem where it's provably correct: exact GPU statevector by default, real IBM Heron above the threshold. Every run is sealed to a WORM ledger.

15
tools · 6 quantum · 9 classical
8×
GPU vs CPU statevector
187
IBM Heron receipts
v4.1.0
engine · maxmesh-hft
The problem we exist to solve

The number that's right until the day it matters.

01 · Fragile

VaR that breaks under stress

A 99% number computed on calm data tells you nothing about the day the correlations go to one. Risk you can't stress is risk you can't size.

02 · Unprovable

A model nobody can audit

If the risk committee can't reproduce the figure, it isn't a control — it's a guess with a decimal point. Regulators don't accept "the model said so."

03 · Unretained

Gone by the next mark

The inputs, the method, the venue — overwritten every run. When you need to show what you knew and when, there's nothing to show.

01 · What it measures

Six quantum tools. Nine classical. One book.

Each measure is computed by a deterministic engine — the audit-reproducible source of truth — with a real quantum method run alongside through the Quantum Execution Service, calibrated to where it's exact.

Value-at-Risk

Quantum-amplitude-estimated VaR over a parametric / historical baseline — the loss you won't exceed at a chosen confidence and horizon.

QAEparametric VaR

Expected Shortfall

The average loss in the tail beyond VaR — the number Basel actually asks for, sampled where the distribution is fattest.

QAECVaR integral

Portfolio optimization

Sizes the book under your constraints — QAOA-style search over a mean-variance objective, escalated to Heron when the problem earns it.

QAOAmean-variance

Regime & duration

Classifies the market regime you're in (QSVM) and matches interest-rate duration (Grover) so the hedge fits the world, not the backtest.

QSVM · Groverlabeled regimes
02 · The risk cockpit

Size the loss. Stress it. Seal it.

A working risk terminal. Enter a book and read its Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, a full stress matrix across confidence and horizon, and the regime you're trading into — every run hashed and sealed in your browser, exactly as the live agent seals to its WORM ledger.

qmc_var · book inputs

99.0% · 10-day VaRNormal regime
$1,326,300
13.26% of the book at risk
$1,520,400
Expected shortfall (CVaR)
2.326
z-score
Stress matrix · VaR as % of book
Horizon95%99%99.9%
In-browser demonstration. Parametric VaR — the deterministic source of truth behind the QAE path — computed and sealed locally with real WebCrypto SHA-256. The production agent runs on IBM watsonx Orchestrate.
03 · How a run is made

Compute. Route. Seal.

01 · COMPUTE
Classical source of truth

The deterministic risk engine produces the figure. Reproducible by the risk committee, by hand, every time.

02 · ROUTE
Calibrated quantum venue

A real QAE / QSVM / QAOA circuit runs alongside — exact GPU statevector by default, real IBM Heron above the calibration ceiling, venue labeled.

03 · SEAL
WORM-anchored proof

Inputs, figure and venue are sealed triple-hash D-KaP under an IBM Key Protect HSM — 7-year retention, verifiable by anyone.

Honest about the boundary. Quantum advantage here is published complexity — QAE O(1/ε), Grover O(√N) — not a per-call measurement. The one measured speed figure is an 8× GPU-vs-CPU statevector benchmark (infrastructure). At 2–6 qubits the circuits are the exact noiseless quantum state, honestly labelled exact simulation; hardware runs carry a retrievable IBM Heron job ID.
04 · The methods, in the open

Real algorithms. A classical source of truth.

Per-tool, the quantum method and the deterministic engine it runs against — the boundary that survives technical due diligence.

Tool
Quantum method
Classical source of truth
qmc_var
QAE
parametric / historical VaR
qmc_cvar
QAE
expected-shortfall integral
portfolio_optimizer
QAOA-style
mean-variance optimizer
market_regime_classifier
QSVM (ZZ kernel)
labeled-regime SVM
duration_hedge
Grover
key-rate duration match
Sealed · triple-hash D-KaP + IBM Key Protect HSM SEC 17a-4FINRA 4370Basel IIIRAS-anchored7-yr WORM

Hedge a risk you can prove.

Add Quantum Hedge to your watsonx Orchestrate workspace, or let the Prompt Builder wire it into a sealed risk-and-hedge chain.

EpochCore, LLC · analytical output only, not investment advice · quantdev@epochcoreqcs.com